KALSHI WEATHER BOT — HISTORICAL BACKTEST

SEP 2025 – FEB 2026 · 7 CITIES · REAL METAR + CLI SETTLEMENT DATA · 10 SCENARIOS

Overall Signal Quality

2,394

TOTAL SIGNALS DETECTED

68.3%

HISTORICAL WIN RATE

1,636

PREDICTED WINS

758

PREDICTED LOSSES

Per-City Win Rates

Equity Curves

10 Scenario Results

#	Scenario	Trades	Win Rate	Net P&L	Total Deployed	ROI	Max Drawdown	Best Streak	Worst Streak

METHODOLOGY: Signal fires when METAR shows ≥5 readings during the HIGH window (10am–5pm) or ≥3 readings during the LOW window (8pm–5am). Bot bets NO at threshold = METAR peak ± 2°F. WIN if CLI settlement stays inside the threshold. Pricing assumes 42¢ YES / 58¢ NO (avg from 15 live trades). Taker fee 7%. Does not account for: orderbook depth, spread, margin, or days when Kalshi markets were unavailable.